With less than 48 hours remaining until the pivotal U.S. presidential election, leading pollsters are calling the race a “dead heat.” Recent national surveys show Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris holding a slight edge over former President and Republican contender Donald Trump, with an average lead of just one percentage point (48.5% to 47.6%), according to analyst Nate Silver. Notably, polls from NBC News and Emerson College show a tie at 49% for each candidate, while Ipsos gives Harris a three-point advantage (49%-46%) and AtlasIntel shows Trump with a two-point lead (50%-48%). The contest is particularly tight in the seven crucial “battleground” states that will ultimately decide the Electoral College and, with it, the presidency.
The latest New York Times-Siena polls, known for their credibility according to polling analysis site 538.com, show Trump leading Harris in Arizona (49% to 45%), just outside the error margin of approximately three percentage points. In the other six battleground states, Harris is slightly ahead in four—Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia—and tied with Trump in both Pennsylvania, which holds 19 electoral votes, and Michigan. These tight margins, all within the error range, mean a minor shift could determine the outcome in any of these states.
Harris’s performance is promising, especially considering that Trump previously had a strong lead over President Joe Biden in these states before his withdrawal. However, the slim margins in the key “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have raised concerns within her campaign. These states, historically known as the “Rust Belt” due to their manufacturing roots, are facing ongoing economic struggles.
To clinch the necessary 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency, Harris needs to maintain her lead in these critical “Blue Wall” states, even if she loses some ground elsewhere. If she falters in the Rust Belt, she would need to outperform Trump in the fast-growing “Sun Belt” states, like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—states that Trump won in 2020.
The NYT-Siena polls indicate that Harris is holding her own in the Sun Belt, while Trump remains strong in the Rust Belt. This points to an election that remains too close to call. Other respected pollsters, including AtlasIntel, show Trump with a narrow lead in key swing states, while aggregators like Nate Silver and 538.com continue to view the election as a “toss-up,” with both candidates holding near-equal chances of victory.
Unlike the 2016 and 2020 elections, where polls predicted clear margins for Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, Trump overperformed in those races despite not winning the popular vote. In response, many pollsters have adjusted their methodologies to account for higher Republican turnout. However, NYT-Siena has kept its traditional approach, without pre-weighting samples.
Experts point out that the close nature of the race reflects a narrowing of the Democratic advantage among racial minorities, with Trump making inroads with non-college-educated voters. At the same time, Harris has regained support since Biden’s exit from the race, particularly among white voters, especially women, with the abortion issue boosting her appeal.
A poll from well-regarded pollster Ann Selzer shows Harris leading Trump 47%-44% in Iowa, a state that has traditionally been solidly Republican. Both the NYT-Siena and Iowa polls suggest that the election outcome may ultimately depend on voter turnout among key demographic groups crucial for each party’s success.
