Syrian President Bashar al-Assad faces one of his most significant challenges in years, as a surprise offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a breakaway faction of al-Qaeda, led to the fall of Aleppo to Turkish-backed rebels. The insurgents, having seized the city, are now advancing towards Hama, while over 300 of their fighters have been killed in the intense clashes. Reports indicate that the rebels have even managed to capture a military helicopter from the retreating Syrian Army, demonstrating their growing strength and capability.
As the situation worsens and the threat to Damascus intensifies, Assad has turned to his long-time allies, Russia and Iran, for assistance. However, both countries are facing their own challenges that limit their ability to provide full support. Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine has drained military and financial resources, while Iran is also stretched thin by Israeli attacks targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon. Despite these constraints, Iran has responded by sending reinforcements, including militia groups from Iraq, to assist Assad’s forces.
The unexpected success of the opposition forces, largely composed of HTS and other rebel groups based in Idlib, has forced Assad into crisis mode. The rebels’ advance towards Damascus has escalated fears that the government could be toppled, leaving Assad’s regime struggling to maintain control. In response, Assad has emphasized the importance of his allies’ support, with both Russia and Iran expressing concern over the loss of key territory and the growing strength of the insurgents.
In the midst of this turmoil, Turkey has further complicated the situation by announcing plans to establish a “safe zone” along its border with Syria, aimed at pushing back Kurdish forces. The move comes as Turkey seeks to exert greater influence in the region and secure its border from Kurdish militias, whom it accuses of links to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), a designated terrorist organization. The U.S., which has supported Kurdish forces in Syria in the fight against ISIS, has expressed concern about the safety of Syrian Kurds who are now trapped in areas like Tal Rifaat, caught between the advancing Turkish-backed forces and pro-Assad militias.
The rapidly escalating conflict has left Syria’s future uncertain, with regional and global powers vying for influence while Assad’s government struggles to hold its ground. The humanitarian toll of the war continues to rise, as millions of civilians are displaced by the fighting, and the country’s infrastructure remains in ruins. The international community remains divided over the best approach to resolve the conflict, with some advocating for diplomatic solutions and others supporting military intervention to halt the violence.
As Assad’s forces face mounting pressure on multiple fronts, the geopolitical complexity of the Syrian war continues to deepen. With external actors such as Turkey, the U.S., and Russia each pursuing their own interests, and local rebel groups pushing closer to Damascus, Syria’s future remains uncertain. It remains to be seen how the balance of power will shift in the coming months and whether a new phase of the conflict will unfold.
