New Delhi:
For over a decade, Syrian rebels fought relentlessly to oust President Bashar al-Assad but struggled to achieve their goal. In a surprising turn of events, however, a swift, two-week-long offensive dismantled the Assad family’s five-decade grip on power, forcing the president to flee to Russia. This unexpected victory stemmed from careful planning, shifting regional power dynamics, and discreet backing from a key Middle Eastern player.

Strategic Timing

The Assad regime’s vulnerabilities became increasingly apparent in recent years. For over a decade, Assad relied on military assistance from Russia and Iran to maintain control. However, as both nations became entangled in broader conflicts, including Israel’s involvement in the Ukraine war, their focus on supporting Assad waned. Compounding this, Hezbollah—a pivotal ally—was severely weakened after Israeli forces killed its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with several senior commanders.

Following a ceasefire in Lebanon on November 27, Hezbollah pulled back its support for Assad, choosing to regroup instead. Meanwhile, internal challenges, such as rampant corruption and severe fuel shortages, further crippled the Syrian military. Many disillusioned Syrians deserted, unwilling to fight their compatriots, and fled to neighboring Lebanon. With morale at an all-time low and resources depleted, Assad’s forces became vulnerable, creating an opening for the rebels.

Turkey’s Calculated Position

As the Assad regime crumbled, Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz publicly distanced Ankara from the offensive, emphasizing concerns over regional instability. However, reports suggest that Turkey tacitly endorsed the operation. Rebels allegedly communicated their plans to Ankara months before the attack and perceived Turkey’s silence as implicit approval.

Turkey has historically supported Syrian opposition factions but considers Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—the leading force in the rebel alliance—a terrorist group. The offensive was spearheaded by HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who has worked to rebrand the group despite its ties to al-Qaeda. Ankara officially denied any coordination with HTS, insisting the group operates independently.

Turkey’s Interests

The prolonged Syrian war has placed immense strain on Turkey, which hosts millions of Syrian refugees. Ankara has consistently urged Assad to pursue a political solution, but the Syrian leader’s refusal to negotiate and insistence on Turkish troop withdrawal have strained relations further. The refugee crisis has also become a contentious domestic issue in Turkey.

Rebels reportedly proposed an alternative to Ankara: non-intervention in exchange for a potential resolution to the Syrian conflict. The fall of Assad aligns with Turkey’s hopes for a new political order that could stabilize its border and alleviate the refugee burden. However, this strategy carries risks, as a regime change could plunge Syria into deeper chaos.

Israel’s Strategic Advantage

Israel emerges as another significant beneficiary of Assad’s ousting. The regime’s collapse disrupts Iran’s supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon, marking a strategic win for Tel Aviv. In response to the rebel victory, Israeli warplanes targeted multiple sites across Syria, destroying weapons caches believed to have fallen into rebel hands.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu celebrated Assad’s fall as a historic turning point, attributing it to Israel’s aggressive stance against Hezbollah and Iran. However, Netanyahu cautioned against complacency, as the breakdown of the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syria has introduced new challenges.

To safeguard its borders, Israel has taken control of a demilitarized buffer zone along its frontier with Syria. Netanyahu emphasized the importance of monitoring developments closely, expressing hope for peaceful relations with Syria’s emerging leadership. Yet, he warned that if peaceful coexistence proves unattainable, Israel would take decisive measures to secure its interests and ensure regional stability.

This dramatic shift in Syria’s political landscape underscores the complexities of the region and the far-reaching consequences of Assad’s downfall. While the rebels’ victory signals an end to Assad’s era, it raises pressing questions about Syria’s future and the stability of the broader Middle East.