The offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has marked a significant turning point in the Syrian civil war, as the Islamist rebels have made substantial territorial gains. The group’s ability to capture half of Aleppo and over 50 towns and villages has raised alarm bells not only in Syria but also among international observers. This marks the first large-scale challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s rule in years, with the regime’s forces appearing to struggle in the face of the rebel push.
HTS’s capture of Aleppo’s western districts, with minimal resistance from government forces, has led to questions about the readiness and morale of Assad’s troops. It also signals a potential shift in the dynamics of the Syrian conflict, particularly as opposition factions, many of which have been entrenched in the Idlib region, are gaining momentum. However, the situation remains fluid, as airstrikes from Russian and Syrian forces are intensifying, particularly targeting the newly captured areas and other rebel-held regions. These airstrikes are seen as an effort by Assad’s backers to regain lost ground and prevent further erosion of his authority.
This offensive also highlights the ongoing complexities of the international proxy war in Syria. The tension between Russia and Turkey, with their respective support for Assad and the rebels, has led to an escalation of hostilities. The Turkish-backed opposition factions, along with U.S. support, are locked in a struggle against Assad’s Russian and Iranian allies. The Assad regime, already weakened by the loss of key regional supporters like Hezbollah, faces significant challenges in maintaining control over large swaths of Syria.
The broader implications of this offensive are concerning for Syria’s future stability. With the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict placing additional strain on Assad’s backers, and the growing strength of the opposition forces, the likelihood of further destabilization increases. This could lead to an intensification of the humanitarian crisis in Syria, which has already displaced millions and caused immense suffering.
As the conflict continues to evolve, the international community remains divided over how to address the growing threat posed by HTS and other opposition factions. Some governments are calling for renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, while others are focusing on military interventions. The outcome of this latest rebel offensive could significantly impact the trajectory of the war and the future political landscape in Syria.