As Maharashtra’s election campaign concluded on Tuesday, uncertainty surrounded the outcome, with party rhetoric intensifying but voter sentiment still unclear.
Vandita Mishra notes that voters in the state are increasingly expressing concerns about a growing sense of “dividation” and the diminishing relevance of political parties. This reflects a deepening distrust in party politics, which could not only influence the election results but also signal a broader challenge to the future of party-led democracies.
This is the first Assembly election since the dramatic split of major parties like Shiv Sena and NCP, reshaping alliances and introducing more contenders. With these new dynamics, predictions of the outcome have become more complicated.
A visit to the Vidarbha region, including districts like Nagpur, Bhandara, and Gondia, revealed widespread voter disillusionment. The focus has shifted from political parties to individual candidates, making the results harder to predict. It remains uncertain whether this shift will benefit Congress and its alliance, Maha Vikas Aghadi, or the BJP and its Mahayuti coalition.
Neerja Chowdhury’s earlier analysis highlights the complexities in Maharashtra’s political landscape. In the 2019 elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena were aligned, while Congress and NCP formed the opposition. However, following the split between BJP and Shiv Sena over the chief minister’s post, Sharad Pawar facilitated an unexpected alliance between Congress and Shiv Sena, bringing Uddhav Thackeray to power. Since then, Shiv Sena and NCP have fractured, with the BJP eventually forming the government.
Today, Maharashtra’s political scene is more unpredictable than ever, with shifting alliances and fractured dynamics making polling difficult.
Family feuds reflect the state’s political fragmentation, exemplified by the Pawar family. Ajit Pawar and his nephew Yugendra are now in a high-stakes battle for control of the NCP, highlighting the deepening divides.
Chowdhury also points to Maharashtra’s shift from political stability to a more fragmented future. The diverse political players mirror India’s growing diversity, but also highlight the influence of money, fear, and government agencies in shaping political allegiances.
The election discourse has largely focused on two major issues: welfare and Hindutva. The BJP has emphasized both, intensifying efforts to rally Hindu voters. After its setbacks in 2019, where it lost significant seats, the BJP has strengthened its coordination with the RSS, which has mobilized its cadre in key constituencies.
Prime Minister Modi’s campaign rhetoric focuses on Hindu unity, with slogans like “ek hai toh safe hai” (Together, we are safe) designed to galvanize Other Backward Classes, Dalits, and Scheduled Tribes. Meanwhile, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has warned voters, “Batenge toh katenge” (divided we fall), stressing the importance of unity.
With concerns over potential Maratha-Muslim consolidation behind the Maha Vikas Aghadi and rising farmer distress, the BJP has turned to Hindutva rhetoric to consolidate the Hindu vote and counter the opposition’s push for caste-based quotas.
Ultimately, while the rhetoric remains strong and divisive, the election outcome is uncertain as voters navigate an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable political landscape.
