As the Maharashtra election campaign drew to a close on Tuesday, uncertainty loomed over the outcome, with party rhetoric growing more intense but the direction of voter sentiment still unclear.
Vandita Mishra writes that voters in the state are increasingly speaking of a growing “dividation” and the rising irrelevance of political parties, highlighting a distrust of party politics that has taken on a new dimension. “This erosion of trust could influence the election results but also signals a deeper warning for the future of party-led democracies,” Mishra observes.
This is the first Assembly election following the dramatic “tod phod” (split) of major parties like Shiv Sena and NCP, which has reshaped alliances and added more contenders to the fray. With alliances now split and reformed, the traditional political landscape has been drastically altered, complicating predictions.
A visit through the Vidarbha region, including districts like Nagpur, Bhandara, and Gondia, revealed that voter disillusionment has shifted the focus from parties to individual candidates, making the election results harder to predict. Whether this localized focus benefits Congress and its alliance, Maha Vikas Aghadi, or the BJP and its alliance, Mahayuti, remains a key question.
Neerja Chowdhury’s earlier analysis highlighted the intricate shifts in Maharashtra politics. The 2019 elections saw the BJP and Shiv Sena on one side, and Congress and NCP on the other. But when the BJP and Shiv Sena split over the chief minister’s post, Sharad Pawar brokered an unexpected alliance between Congress and Shiv Sena, bringing Uddhav Thackeray to power. The subsequent years saw splits within Shiv Sena and NCP, with the BJP eventually forming the government.
Today, the political scene in Maharashtra is more complex than ever, with unpredictable alliances and fractured political dynamics. This uncertainty makes polling predictions difficult.
Family feuds also mirror the political disarray. For instance, the once-united Pawar family is now deeply divided, with Ajit Pawar facing off against his nephew Yugendra in a high-stakes battle for control of the NCP. This fracture highlights the deepening political fragmentation in the state.
Chowdhury also discusses how Maharashtra, historically known for political stability, may be heading toward a more fractured future. The wide array of political players reflects India’s growing diversity and aspirations, but it also underscores the role of money, fear, and government agencies in shaping political allegiances.
The election discourse has largely been dominated by two major issues: welfare and Hindutva. The BJP has sharpened its focus on both, amplifying its efforts to rally Hindu voters. After its setbacks in 2019, where its seat count dropped significantly, the BJP has sought to course-correct by strengthening coordination with the RSS, which has mobilized its cadre in key constituencies.
Prime Minister Modi’s campaign rhetoric centers on Hindu unity, with slogans like “ek hai toh safe hai” (Together, we are safe) aimed at galvanizing Other Backward Classes, Dalits, and Scheduled Tribes. Meanwhile, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has warned voters, “Batenge toh katenge” (divided we fall), stressing the importance of unity.
The BJP, concerned about the possibility of a Maratha-Muslim consolidation behind the Maha Vikas Aghadi, and the growing distress among farmers, has leaned heavily on Hindutva rhetoric to consolidate the Hindu vote and counter the Opposition’s push for caste-based quotas.
In the end, while the rhetoric is strong and divisive, the outcome remains uncertain as voters navigate an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable political landscape.
