In a historic and assertive move, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, a pact that has weathered over six decades of turbulent relations between New Delhi and Islamabad. The decision comes in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack, which claimed the lives of 26 Indian tourists.
“This treaty will remain in abeyance until Pakistan verifiably and permanently ends its support for cross-border terrorism,” said Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri on Wednesday evening.
Despite similar provocations in the past—such as the Pulwama attack in 2019 and the Uri assault in 2016, which killed 18 soldiers—India refrained from suspending the treaty.Following the Uri attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi notably stated, “Blood and water cannot flow simultaneously.”
This time, however, the government has acted decisively. By halting the IWT, India opens a spectrum of strategic possibilities—from curtailing the flow of water from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers to withholding crucial hydrological data from Pakistan. The economic and agricultural consequences for Pakistan, heavily reliant on the Indus River system, could be significant.
What Path Lies Ahead for Pakistan?
Although the treaty doesn’t empower the United Nations’ International Court of Justice to intervene, it does provide a structured mechanism for dispute resolution.The procedure starts with the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), which includes delegates from both India and Pakistan. If unresolved, the matter escalates to a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank—as it did during past disputes over the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects, where India’s stance was upheld.
If both sides remain at an impasse, the final recourse is the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, under Article IX of the treaty. In the most recent dispute, Pakistan sought arbitration via the PCA, diverging from the neutral expert route.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs reaffirmed that “the Neutral Expert’s verdict on issues within his jurisdiction will be conclusive and obligatory for both parties.”
Can India Unilaterally Terminate the Treaty?
Despite India’s firm response, the IWT itself does not permit unilateral withdrawal. Article XII clearly states that the treaty remains in force unless both nations mutually agree to terminate it through a ratified agreement.
Moreover, although the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties governs the procedures for treaty termination, India is not a signatory. However, it often refers to its principles for guidance.
India cannot entirely block water flow but is within its rights to reduce it under certain provisions, particularly Article 3 of the treaty. While this action could invite scrutiny and possibly set a precedent for other upstream nations, India frames it as a necessary response to repeated terror attacks.
