Cyclone Fengal Likely to Form Over Southwest Bay of Bengal, Heavy Rains Expected in Tamil Nadu
A depression over the Southwest Bay of Bengal has strengthened into a deep depression and is expected to evolve into Cyclone Fengal by Wednesday, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The system is forecasted to move in a north-northwest direction, heading towards the Tamil Nadu coast over the next 48 hours.
Current Location and Movement
As of Tuesday, the system was positioned approximately 310 km southeast of Trincomalee, 590 km south-southeast of Nagapattinam, 710 km southeast of Puducherry, and 800 km southeast of Chennai. The IMD indicated that the deep depression is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by November 27 as it progresses towards Tamil Nadu, skirting the Sri Lankan coastline.
Rainfall Predictions and Alerts
The approaching system is expected to bring significant rainfall to Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. On November 27, isolated areas may experience rainfall exceeding 20 cm, categorized as “very heavy” rainfall. Over the following two days, November 28 and 29, heavy to very heavy rainfall (ranging from 6.45 cm to 20 cm) is likely in certain locations, with heavy downpours anticipated in isolated spots.
Neighboring Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema will also see light to moderate rainfall on November 27, with heavy rainfall expected to intensify across these regions on November 28 and 29.
Cyclone Intensity and Coastal Impact
Although the cyclone is expected to intensify due to warmer sea surface temperatures (around 30°C) in the southwest Bay of Bengal, cooler temperatures closer to the coastline may weaken the system as it nears landfall. IMD officials predict that even a weakened system will cause widespread heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
The elevated tropical cyclone heat potential in the southwest Bay of Bengal favors the system’s intensification. However, the lower heat potential near Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh may reduce the cyclone’s strength as it approaches the coast.
Advisory for Fishermen and Coastal Preparations
The IMD has advised fishermen to refrain from venturing into the southwest Bay of Bengal and the waters near Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu until November 29. Those already at sea are urged to return to the shore immediately.
Potential Risks and Precautions
The IMD has warned of localized flooding, waterlogging in low-lying areas, and possible road closures, especially in urban regions. Damage to crops, infrastructure, and roads is anticipated due to heavy rainfall and inundation. Traffic disruptions are expected in affected regions, and residents have been advised to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions.
Continuous monitoring of the cyclone’s progress is underway, and further updates will be provided as the system moves closer to the Tamil Nadu coast.
