A depression over the Southwest Bay of Bengal has intensified into a deep depression and is expected to further strengthen into Cyclone Fengal on Wednesday, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The system is projected to move north-northwestward towards the Tamil Nadu coast over the next two days.
As of Tuesday, the deep depression was located approximately 310 km southeast of Trincomalee, 590 km south-southeast of Nagapattinam, 710 km southeast of Puducherry, and 800 km southeast of Chennai.
The IMD has warned that the system is very likely to continue moving north-northwestward, intensifying into a cyclonic storm by November 27. It will then continue its north-northwestward movement towards the Tamil Nadu coast, skirting Sri Lanka during the next two days. The IMD has stated that continuous monitoring is in place as the system moves and intensifies.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in some areas, with isolated locations potentially receiving more than 20 cm of rain on November 27 across Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. On November 28 and 29, heavy to very heavy rainfall (6.45 cm to 20 cm) is forecasted at certain locations, with isolated heavy rainfall also possible.
The cyclone will also bring light to moderate rainfall with heavy rainfall at isolated places across Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema on November 27, with more intense rainfall expected on November 28 and 29.
IMD officials explained that the cyclone is forming near the coast and will likely weaken before landfall. However, even if it crosses the coast as a weakened system, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are still expected to experience heavy, widespread rainfall. The system’s proximity to warmer sea surface temperatures (around 30°C) could lead to slight intensification, though lower temperatures near the coast may cause some weakening before landfall.
Tropical cyclone heat potential is also higher in the southwest Bay of Bengal, but lower in areas near Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh, which may reduce the system’s strength closer to the coast.
The IMD has advised fishermen to avoid venturing into the southwest Bay of Bengal and the waters off Sri Lanka and the Tamil Nadu coast until November 29. Fishermen already at sea are urged to return to the coast immediately.
The IMD has also warned of localized flooding, waterlogging in low-lying areas, and possible road closures, especially in urban areas. Disruptions to traffic are expected, with damage to roads, crops, and infrastructure in some regions due to inundation.
