MUMBAI: With 18 out of 140 Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) patients in Pune requiring ventilator support, experts warn the outbreak could rank among the largest globally. While it hasn’t yet surpassed the worst recorded outbreaks, historical data suggests it may be heading in that direction.
Until 2019, medical literature classified 30 to 50 cases as an outbreak, but that changed when Peru reported 1,120 cases, including 683 in just two months. The country’s annual cases had risen sharply from 59 in 2017 to 262 in 2018 before peaking in 2019. Another flare-up occurred in 2023, with 130 suspected cases recorded in just over a month.
Despite being an autoimmune disorder, GBS is now being recognized as an emerging outbreak-prone condition. A Mumbai-based medical professor emphasized the need to shift perspectives, urging epidemiological studies to identify links between patients and potential causes.
One common factor between the Peru and Pune outbreaks is the microbe Campylobacter jejuni, which has been associated with increased disability and mortality in smaller studies worldwide.
GBS has been considered rare, with India’s reported annual incidence at 1.75 to 2 cases per lakh population. Due to its low prevalence, in-depth studies have been limited. The first major analysis on GBS prevalence and disability burden was conducted in 2021, analyzing data from 1990 to 2019. It found that countries such as Japan, Brunei, Singapore, South Korea, the US, and Mexico had higher-than-expected burdens, while China, Fiji, Taiwan, and Guam had lower-than-expected cases.